Why “Going Waterfall” After a Layoff Is a Red Flag and What Works for Predictable Delivery
- Oshri Cohen
- Jun 17
- 4 min read
TL;DR: Don’t Let a Crisis Send You Backwards
Layoffs and reorgs are tough, and the lure of Waterfall is strong. But history (and all the data) tells us that predictability at the cost of flexibility isn’t a win, it’s just a different flavour of failure. If you want delivery you can count on, it’s the process, not the paperwork, that needs to evolve.
Need help making your SDLC both predictable and adaptive? Red Corner’s Fractional CTO service has seen and fixed this play before. Don’t let “predictability” become your company’s next expensive illusion.
---
After a round of layoffs, leadership announces a return to Waterfall, the classic, phase-gated, plan-everything-up-front software development life cycle (SDLC). The pitch: Waterfall will deliver more predictability for the business. No more scope creep, no more vague deadlines, just solid, up-front requirements and a calendar you can set your watch to. It sounds reassuring, especially in uncertain times. But is it actually the answer?
Let’s reality-check that.
The Appeal (and Trap) of Waterfall
Waterfall offers a kind of emotional comfort, especially to executives dealing with the aftermath of layoffs. The promise is seductive: give me your requirements, I’ll give you your timeline, and we’ll all look like heroes at the next board meeting. In times of chaos, predictability is tempting.
But in practice, requirements always change. Even seasoned execs know this, but when office politics heat up, being able to point to “bad requirements” becomes a convenient shield. Waterfall often delivers predictability only in the sense that you can predict you’ll deliver something that’s out of date or incomplete by the time you ship.
As one analysis puts it, “Predictably delivering what the customer doesn’t want isn’t the goal” (source).
What the Data Actually Says
Let’s move past opinions and look at real data. The Standish Group’s CHAOS Report is the gold standard for software project success and failure rates. Here are a few facts:
Agile projects are three times more likely to succeed than Waterfall projects.
Waterfall projects are more likely to go over budget, miss deadlines, or fail outright.
Read more in these summaries:
As noted in the research, “Agile projects succeed where traditional projects fail. It’s really that simple.”
If your new SDLC is designed to make outsourcing or fixed-bid contracting easier, it might serve a business process, but it’s almost guaranteed to fail at delivering real business value unless your requirements truly never change. (And in my experience, that’s never the case.)
Why “Predictability” Is a Mirage
The drive for predictability usually masks something deeper: fear of uncertainty. Sometimes it’s because leadership has made big promises; sometimes it’s a precursor to more outsourcing and headcount cuts. But often, it’s rooted in the myth that you can make software development as simple as running a factory.
Here’s the thing: Predictably delivering the wrong thing isn’t actually delivering value. Quarterly or even monthly “on time” releases look good on a spreadsheet, but if what’s shipped is out of sync with customers or internal priorities, you’re just being predictably irrelevant.
“Delivering the wrong thing on time is still failure,” says Ron Lichty’s analysis.
The Smarter Alternative: Release Trains, Not Waterfall
If predictability truly matters (for regulatory, marketing, or other real reasons), there are proven patterns that work, without the pain of Waterfall. One of the most useful is the “Agile Release Train.”
The idea:
Fix your release dates (for example, every month or quarter)
Whatever is ready ships; anything unfinished rolls into the next train
Scope is flexible, dates and quality are not
This pattern builds trust and reliability, without locking you into requirements that will inevitably change. For more on this, see Industrial Logic’s take on predictability.
Even in complex, enterprise-scale environments, this approach has enabled predictability without sacrificing adaptability (more details).
How Red Corner’s Fractional CTO Service Can Help
If your leadership is heading down the Waterfall path, or you’re caught between the politics of “the business” and the reality of modern software, this is exactly when an outside technical leader can help. Red Corner’s Fractional CTO service was built for moments like these when you need a credible voice in the room and a practical, data-backed playbook for aligning business needs with engineering best practices.
What does that look like?
Unpacking the root causes of the drive for predictability (is it real or political?)
Designing SDLCs that keep stakeholders happy and developers productive
Coaching leadership and teams through transitions, especially after a layoff, when morale is fragile
Providing the research, data, and external credibility to challenge or validate big process shifts
Think of Red Corner as your SDLC therapist: we help you figure out what’s really going on, what you actually need, and how to get there without the scars of another failed process experiment.
Further Reading and References
Let’s build something better, more predictable, and valuable. If you want to talk through your company’s SDLC, Red Corner is here to help.
Comments